Report Created From Product: AFDBOXMA
FXUS61 KBOX 292326
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA...
PROVIDING DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN WESTERN NEW YORK STATE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. THE FRONT...STRETCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AS IT NEARS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD FORM ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WESTERN MASS
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW IT MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MODEL
RUNS. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE AT THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS. NEITHER THE NAM OR THE GFS SHOW ANY
INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES OR CAPE. THERE
IS ENOUGH SHEAR /ABOUT 20KTS 0-6KM/ FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT/S ON
THE LOW END FOR ANYTHING SEVERE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THIS...AND THE
LACK OF GOOD DYNAMICS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. IT CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THERE MAY BE A STORM OR TWO...BUT IT IS VERY
UNLIKELY.
AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
ACROSS...THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BUT JUST TO AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE IT/S TREK ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE MOVED
WELL OUT TO SEA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. HOWEVER...THESE LIKELY WILL
HAVE MOVED OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE WESTERN USA EARLY IN THE WEEK...RELAXES A
LITTLE MIDWEEK...THEN DIGS AGAIN LATE WEEK. STRONG UPPER RIDGE MIMICS
THIS ACTION BY BUILDING EARLY...WEAKENING MIDWEEK...AND REBUILDING
LATE WEEK ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE EARLY WEEK RIDGE. BOTTOM LINE
IS STILL THE SAME...AN OVERALL A QUIET PERIOD WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
850 MB TEMPS START AROUND 11-12C EARLY WEEK...CLIMB TO 18-19C
TUESDAY...THEN 15-17C THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
80S...WITH A PERIOD NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL GET...IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN THE FRONT COULD STALL
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW THE FORECAST BRINGS A FEW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT IS OTHERWISE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY FILLING IN WITH MAINLY 5500 FT BASES REPORTED IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND A SCATTERED 5500 LAYER IN THE EAST. WE
EXPECT ALL AREAS TO GO OVER TO A BROKEN LAYER DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. SEA BREEZE EAST WIND AT BOSTON IS HANGING TOUGH...BUT
SHOULD SWING AROUND TO SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE WITH IT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT 15Z. WHEN THESE STORMS
MOVE THROUGH...MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THAT AREA LATE...AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CLEAR THE COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
RETURN.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE IN
EARLY MORNING FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...NE SWELLS AROUND 3 FT WILL CONTINUE...
SEAS COULD REACH 4 FEET ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE S-SE.
SATURDAY...S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN
15 KTS AND A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OUT ONTO THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KTS
AS THIS OCCURS BUT OTHERWISE WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS REMAIN
AT 4 FT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
LINGERING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA MAY SEND 4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS TO THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET MONDAY...BUT THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS THE HEAVIEST SWELLS OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET FROM ANY SOUTHEAST SWELL.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/DRAG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
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