Report Created From Product: DY1ONEUS
ACUS01 KWNS 311624
SWODY1
SPC AC 311621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE PLAINS
STATES...
...SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...
YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LEVEL JETS WILL ROTATE AROUND BROADER CENTRAL
CANADA/GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
LEADING IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PA EARLY TODAY...ALTHOUGH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW
ENGLAND. SURFACE WAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER FAR NERN PA THIS MORNING WITH
WARM/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
MAINTAIN FEED OF UNSEASONABLY MOIST /NEAR TROPICAL/ AIRMASS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR. OBSERVED AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR SPREADING FROM NERN PA/NRN NJ/FAR SRN
NY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND UNDER 30-40 KT SSWLY H85 FLOW.
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO LIMIT HEATING
AND RESULTANT DEEP INSTABILITY...LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR
DAMAGING WINDS.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF NC...HEATING
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND LIKELY SUPPORT AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY DESPITE THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SUGGEST SECONDARY 40 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATER TODAY BOOSTING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT ENEWD MOVING BANDS OF STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES UNDER
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...SUPPORTING PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS ENEWD LATER TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.
ORGANIZATION/SEVERITY OF DIURNAL STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SSWWD
EXTENT INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES TODAY.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH
MARGINAL HAIL/WIND BEING PRIMARY THREATS.
...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY LARGE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY...WITH RESULTANT INCREASE IN NWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE NEAR ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB/SERN WY LATER TODAY...AS MID LEVEL
CAPPING WEAKENS AND 50+F SURFACE DEW POINTS SUPPORT MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO OCCUR
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO NRN NM WHICH WILL
SPREAD OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE IN THE FORM OF CLUSTERS/LINES WITH
STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT WILL EXTEND NWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO
ERN ND/NWRN MN...ALTHOUGH COOLER/STABLE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERITY WITH NRN EXTENT. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE NIGHT BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AND
INVOF LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME INTO PORTIONS OF KS/OK...WITH SEVERE
THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY WANES.
..EVANS/JEWELL.. 07/31/2009
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